One year ago, the Web was buzzing with rumors that Apple planned to introduce a $99 iPod at Macworld in San Francisco. The rumor spread to mainstream press, where it was reported as fact. Pretty soon, everyone was expecting a $99 iPod to debut at Macworld.

What they got instead was the iPod mini, with its $249 price tag. The backlash was swift and terrible. Critics said the iPod mini was overpriced. Why would anyone buy it when the regular iPod cost just $50 more? Who would buy an iPod mini instead of a cheaper, flash-based player?

We all know how that story turned out.

This week, the Web is buzzing about the rumor that Apple plans to introduce an inexpensive headless iMac (i.e. CPU sold without monitor). What began as a rumor is now being reported as fact in the mainstream media.

I have no inside information, but I would bet money against the introduction of a $499 headless Mac, for reasons I've outlined before.

Apple's brand is built on innnovative, premium products. Entering the bargain PC market would be a major change in strategy.

Kernel of truth?
Is the $499 headless Mac just wishful thinking, or something more? What real product or product update could lead people to believe that an inexpensive "pizza box" Mac is on the way?

It could be a new low-end Power Mac, but probably not for $499. And that would not have generated the rumor of a new device with a "pizza box" footprint, like a small Xserve.

Perhaps Apple plans a "speed bump" for the eMac model (i.e. more horsepower and/or lower price). If the specs stay the same, the price could drop, but probably not from $799 to $499. Furthermore, Apple is unlikely to improve the specs and drop the price.

Something new?
The most interesting possibility is that Apple has built something entirely new. Maybe the $499 price tag is correct, but it's not a computer; it's a new consumer electronics device that does Something Else.

Several theories are already floating around. Imagine a device that functions as a CD player, DVD player, and iPod dock, capable of playing music and photos from an iPod or iPod photo. (Imagine a device that slices, dices and makes julienne fries! It's a floor polish and a dessert topping!)

AOL iMac?
What's interesting to me about the consumer space is that many people don't need what we call a computer, Windows or Mac. I think there's a huge market out there of people who want little more than e-mail, Web browsing, and instant messaging.

Apple already has multiple partnerships with AOL. Maybe there's an AOL iMac in the future. Think of the original (QNX-based?) WebTV, before Microsoft got its hands on it.

Unfortunately, most of these theories run smack dab into Apple's historic indifference (animosity?) towards television. If past behavior is any indication, Apple is unlikely produce anything that hooks up to a TV (dashing the hopes of those who want to see Apple make an alternative to the Media Center PC).

Ah, wild specuation. What fun.

Like most people outside Cupertino HQ, I have no idea what's going to happen on January 11 at Macworld. However, I'm willing to bet that the day's news will not include a $499 headless Mac.