One year ago, the Web was buzzing with rumors that Apple planned to introduce a $99 iPod at Macworld in San Francisco. The rumor spread to mainstream press, where it was reported as fact. Pretty soon, everyone was expecting a $99 iPod to debut at Macworld.
What they got instead was the iPod mini, with its $249 price tag. The backlash was swift and terrible. Critics said the iPod mini was overpriced. Why would anyone buy it when the regular iPod cost just $50 more? Who would buy an iPod mini instead of a cheaper, flash-based player?
We all know how that story turned out.
This week, the Web is buzzing about the rumor that Apple plans to introduce an inexpensive headless iMac (i.e. CPU sold without monitor). What began as a rumor is now being reported as fact in the mainstream media.
I have no inside information, but I would bet money against the introduction of a $499 headless Mac, for reasons I've outlined before.
Apple's brand is built on innnovative, premium products. Entering the bargain PC market would be a major change in strategy.
Kernel of truth?
Is the $499 headless Mac just wishful thinking, or something more? What real product or product update could lead people to believe that an inexpensive "pizza box" Mac is on the way?
It could be a new low-end Power Mac, but probably not for $499. And that would not have generated the rumor of a new device with a "pizza box" footprint, like a small Xserve.
Perhaps Apple plans a "speed bump" for the eMac model (i.e. more horsepower and/or lower price). If the specs stay the same, the price could drop, but probably not from $799 to $499. Furthermore, Apple is unlikely to improve the specs and drop the price.
Something new?
The most interesting possibility is that Apple has built something entirely new. Maybe the $499 price tag is correct, but it's not a computer; it's a new consumer electronics device that does Something Else.
Several theories are already floating around. Imagine a device that functions as a CD player, DVD player, and iPod dock, capable of playing music and photos from an iPod or iPod photo. (Imagine a device that slices, dices and makes julienne fries! It's a floor polish and a dessert topping!)
AOL iMac?
What's interesting to me about the consumer space is that many people don't need what we call a computer, Windows or Mac. I think there's a huge market out there of people who want little more than e-mail, Web browsing, and instant messaging.
Apple already has multiple partnerships with AOL. Maybe there's an AOL iMac in the future. Think of the original (QNX-based?) WebTV, before Microsoft got its hands on it.
Unfortunately, most of these theories run smack dab into Apple's historic indifference (animosity?) towards television. If past behavior is any indication, Apple is unlikely produce anything that hooks up to a TV (dashing the hopes of those who want to see Apple make an alternative to the Media Center PC).
Ah, wild specuation. What fun.
Like most people outside Cupertino HQ, I have no idea what's going to happen on January 11 at Macworld. However, I'm willing to bet that the day's news will not include a $499 headless Mac.
1. PXLated on December 31, 2004 05:32 PM writes...
I'm with you...vaporware...wouldn't doubt Apple planted the rumor as a diversion. But, there will be something, Stevie likes surprises.
Permalink to Comment2. Roger on December 31, 2004 07:32 PM writes...
I, like yourself, had serious doubts about Apple going in the ChEAP PC gutter. A digital home device seems a better prospect for profit. I think Apple will get an OK market share with iMacs and emacs; But I have thought this for several years.
It seems that most people will take what ever beating MS wants to give them. But all we have to do is look at the silly crap people drive and live in to see how mindless most are.
Roger
Permalink to Comment3. Roger on December 31, 2004 07:35 PM writes...
I almost forgot. On this page everthing above the word"Apple" (in blue) is unreadable on Firefox 1.0 on Mac OSX
roger
Permalink to Comment4. Dave on January 1, 2005 01:12 PM writes...
I, for one, think this a cheap Mac is quite possible. If for no other reason than to provide us Mac users with a home/small business server with many "needed" extras we could all use. Consider the removal of the 17" screen, keyboard and mouse from an iMac (deduct $500) and you have a price tag of 699. Assume you will sell these, like iPods, in bunches and get aggressive on the price... set it at $599. Now, the cost of including all the iApps is nill, and the potential for "selling" the upgrades in a year for $100 per system really adds up. Of course, the 256K will need to be upgraded so add another $75 to bump it to 512.
So how do you manage a headless Mac without screen or keyboard? Sell them extra... or include Apple Remote Desktop for those of us who own Macs and presto, instant, fully functioning Mac home server.
Sell various other target packages for another $100 each and you get the picture. The baseline purchase creaps up enought to hit a $700-800 price tag in a hurry.
Home server with automated backup software for 5 systems, home automation, Delicious Library, Recipe manager, Phone Valet, etc and bingo—you just added another $100 in revenue that cost less than $25 (volume purchases).
Small office server with automated backup for 10 systems (more systems for more $$$) Apache, Tomcat, and a mini Xserve (limited to 5 users) and bingo—you just added another $100 in revenue that cost less than $25.
So the CHEAP Mac, which starts at $599 will actually sell for $700... with incremental software upgrade revenues (can you spell T I G E R ? This will add $99-129 for about half the units they sell in less than a year.) Tiger alone will generate a future value more than a hundred $$$ quite soon.
What's the problem with this? Apple is sitting on a lotta cash and they can bank it with hardware sales that will pay software sales dividends in less than a year.
Permalink to Comment5. Jerry on January 3, 2005 08:55 AM writes...
I think it will happen. It's a great idea and will help get focus back on Apple COMPUTER.
Permalink to Comment6. Marc Nothrop on January 3, 2005 08:39 PM writes...
Personally I'm not so sure about all the speculation; I can see some logic to a cheaper Mac, but just how much of that is wishful thinking?!
With multiple laptops around the house, I for one would very much like a 'seamless' home server of some kind, without the bulk, and mainenance of a full-blown desktop Mac, making it easy to share the all important 'stuff' (music and photo libraries, calendars, applications and documents.)
Aside: Delicious Library looks interesting, but having to constantly ensure that each machine is up-to-date, would be more effort than it saves.
I personally can see the potential market, it's just a matter of timing, if-andp-when Apple continue their push into the 'convergence' space. As noted, the DVD/PVR device model could be a convenient carrier for a home server, in an extension to the AirPort Express model.
Finally, to those arguing that Apple 'doesn't do TV', don't forget Pippin (http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/macproto/Pippin.html), which hooked up to a TV, but was it a WebTV, a mini PC, or games console? They were never sure, and it didn't work. They also tried MacTV, which simply incorporated a tuner card, and of couse there's the long rumoured iTV, set top box, PVR, whatever name it had over the years (hint, often seen to be based on the 6100 form factor.)
Sometimes it seems Apple's early advances are lost, or forgotten, and they are accused of being behind PCs... maybe the timing wasn't right, and the market wasn't there yet, but they've not been afraid to try convergence.
Permalink to Comment7. keith jolley on January 11, 2005 07:25 PM writes...
Sandy wrote:
' I would bet money against the introduction of a $499 headless Mac'
Steve wrote:
'Live the digital life in stylish simplicity. Just 6.5 inches wide and 2 inches tall, Mac mini provides what you need to have more fun with your music, photos and movies — right out of the box. And it boasts a miniscule price to match: Mac mini starts at $499.'
http://www.apple.com/macmini/
So did you bet money? :)
Keith
Permalink to Comment(with much assistance from 20/20 hindsight)
8. Sandy McMurray on January 11, 2005 07:50 PM writes...
In this case, I'm delighted to be wrong. (Fortunately, no one put any cash against my prediction.)
I stand by the statement, "Entering the bargain PC market would be a major change in strategy." This is a big, bold move for Apple.
Permalink to Comment